Gold Stalls Ahead of US Inflation Data: Lessons From Someone Who Lost It All

Gold stalls ahead of US inflation data because investors are waiting for the Fed’s next signal before pushing prices past resistance. Back in late 2022, when my portfolio got wiped out as the VN-Index crashed from 1,500 to 911 points, I bought a bit of gold to ‘hide’. But I bought out of panic, not understanding — and that same feeling came back watching gold dance without knowing why.

📌 What is happening

World gold prices rose cautiously on Tuesday (Aug 25) but stayed under 4,700 USD/oz as markets await Wednesday’s US inflation report — the data that will set the next direction. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold fund, sold net during the session, a sign that big money is being cautious rather than chasing the rally.

• World gold prices rose on Tuesday (Aug 25) but cautiously, still unable to break past 4,700 USD/oz.
• Investors are waiting for the US inflation report due Wednesday — the key data that will set the next direction.
• SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold fund, sold net during the session — showing big money is being cautious, not chasing.
• Overall market mood: waiting for clear signals from the Fed rather than guessing direction.

Source: vneconomy.vn

What Ho Alva sees

Gold is not the ‘absolute safe haven’ everyone claims — it moves in cycles just like any other asset. In 2022, when the Fed hiked rates 11 times in a row, the dollar strengthened, and gold moved wildly too — nothing like the calm asset I imagined.

Second angle, a reverse question: why would a giant fund like SPDR sell net right when the price is rising? Are they taking profit, or seeing something small investors have not seen yet? I used to think ‘rising price means buy’, but after the 2022 crash I learned rising price is only half the story — where big money is moving is the other half.

Third angle: I see many women around me still treat gold as traditional ‘savings’ — buying because mom said so, not because they understand it. I used to be one of them. Now I believe understanding what you hold matters more than how much you hold.

🔍 The number worth watching more

The number worth watching is not the 4,700 USD/oz level — it is SPDR selling net right as prices climbed. For retail investors, this raises a direct question: what is institutional money thinking that I have not noticed yet?

I skipped that question back in 2021 — I only saw rising prices as good news, never asking who was selling to me.

Impact on Vietnam’s market — my personal view

This reflects my personal observations only — not investment advice. Gold stalls ahead of US inflation data typically because the same Fed decisions that move gold also move the USD/VND exchange rate and foreign capital flows into Vietnam’s stock market.

Short term (1–3 months)

I have observed that every time the market waits for US inflation data, the USD/VND rate and foreign capital flow on Vietnam’s stock exchange tend to shift too. In 2022, as the Fed kept hiking, foreign investors sold net heavily and the VN-Index dropped the most globally. I think a waiting period like this usually keeps the domestic market range-bound until the official figures come out.

Medium term (3–12 months)

Looking back at 2011, when Vietnam’s CPI hit 18.6% and interest rates were pushed to 14%, those holding USD or gold benefited more than those holding pure VND. I think if US inflation remains an unpredictable variable, Fed policy will keep indirectly affecting Vietnam’s exchange rate and domestic liquidity — something I always watch, not to guess tops or bottoms, but to understand the macro context I am living in.

Long term (1 year and beyond)

I think about Vietnam’s market upgrade story — long-term foreign capital cares more about macro stability, where US inflation and monetary policy are just one piece. From the 2018 experience, when the US-China trade war broke out, everyone panicked at first, but long term Vietnam benefited from shifted manufacturing orders. I believe short-term shocks do not determine a market’s long-term story.

Reminder: I am not recommending buying or selling any asset. Everyone has different risk appetite and financial circumstances — please research or consult an expert before making decisions.

What I have lived through…

I once thought university finance knowledge and a few good years during COVID meant I understood the market. Then Q2/2022 hit, and I lost everything. Then I got scammed by Mr. Pip on his fake forex platform — losing hundreds of millions of VND trusting promises of high returns without checking properly. The most expensive price I paid was not money, but blind faith in my own confidence. That is when I truly started learning — slowing down, reading, working with anh Hiếu at Faviz to understand what real growth investing means.

Have you ever bought an asset just because you saw it rising, without asking who was selling it to you? While gold stalls ahead of US inflation data, the real lesson is learning to ask that question before you buy, not after you lose. Book a free consultation