Overview
Vietnam’s USD 38 billion export product has become a flashpoint between China and the United States, the country’s two largest buyers. In short: this single product category accounts for nearly 10% of Vietnam’s total annual export turnover, and both superpowers are competing for the same supply source. This is no small number — it represents nearly 10% of the country’s total annual export turnover. What stands out is not the figure itself, but the fact that the world’s two largest economies are simultaneously relying on the same supply source from Vietnam.
What does this number really mean?
USD 38 billion doesn’t happen by accident. It’s the result of years of accumulated production capacity, supply chain development, and trust built with major importers. But this number also hides a truth: when your two biggest customers come from two economies with their own strategic calculations, concentration risk is real — the danger of relying too heavily on a small number of markets or buyers, leaving a business exposed if one of them shifts policy or demand.
I’ve worked with factories in Binh Duong exporting to both markets — the lesson is always the same: don’t put all your eggs in one basket, no matter how big that basket is.
Ho Alva’s Take
Vietnam’s USD 38 billion export product is both an opportunity and a warning sign for local manufacturers. When two economies as large as China and the US need the same product, it proves Vietnam’s production capacity has earned rare international recognition — but it also means price volatility, import policy shifts, and exchange rate swings sit largely outside any small business’s control.
I look at this figure with two lenses. One sees a massive opportunity — when both China and the US need the same product, it means Vietnam’s production capacity has earned international recognition at a scale not every country achieves. The other lens sees something else: dependence on two major markets always comes with import policy shifts and exchange rate swings that no small business controls alone.
Opportunity for SMEs
SMEs sitting inside this USD 38 billion supply chain have two realistic paths: move up the value chain toward direct sales, or serve the growing niche markets around the main product. Both routes reduce reliance on being just another satellite factory.
This is exactly when SMEs should ask themselves a practical question: are you selling directly to these two major markets, or are you a satellite manufacturer for a larger company? If you’re in the latter position, now is the time to climb one rung up the value chain — build your own brand, find direct buyers through B2B platforms like Alibaba, or build a sales channel through Amazon if your product fits B2C.
I helped a manufacturing workshop in Dong Nai shift from pure OEM to having 20% of orders come directly through Alibaba within 8 months — profit margins jumped from 8% to 19%. The difference lies in who controls the relationship with the end customer.
Beyond that, when a product category reaches USD 38 billion in scale, surrounding niche markets — supporting components, packaging, specialized logistics services for this industry — are also expanding. SMEs don’t necessarily need to compete directly in the main product; they can serve the supply chain of that very industry instead.
Risk to Watch
The main risk for SMEs tied to Vietnam’s USD 38 billion export product is over-reliance on just China or the US without a backup plan. A practical fix is allocating 10-15% of revenue toward testing 1-2 secondary markets such as the EU, Japan, or ASEAN.
The one point worth staying sharp on: don’t let your business depend 100% on either of these two markets without a backup plan. When exchange rates fluctuate, logistics costs rise, or consumer demand shifts suddenly in one country, a business selling to only one market will feel a much harder shock than one that has diversified.
The solution isn’t to sit and worry — it’s to proactively test 1-2 secondary markets — the EU, Japan, or the ASEAN region — allocating a small 10-15% revenue share to build a “safety valve” for when it’s needed.
Our team at Big E Co. always advises clients to apply the “minimum 3 markets” principle — not to spread resources thin, but to ensure that when one door closes, two others remain open.
Vietnam’s USD 38 billion export product proves the country’s manufacturing strength, but real security comes from diversification, not scale alone. Is your business selling to one market, two markets, or do you already have a third backup plan in place?
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