Gold Breaks 4,000 USD/oz — What I Learned From Running to Gold

In 2022, after losing everything as the VN-Index crashed to 911.9 points from its peak, I remember sitting down to recalculate my portfolio — the only thing still faintly green in that sea of red was a small amount of gold my mother had kept for me. That’s when I understood gold doesn’t make you rich fast, but it’s the thing that keeps you from collapsing completely. Reading this week’s news about gold breaking the 4,000 USD/oz mark, I remembered that exact feeling — the feeling of someone who just burned their account, looking for shelter.

📌 What’s happening

• Gold prices rose again on Tuesday, July 14th, holding above the 4,000 USD/oz mark.
• Main driver: US inflation data showing signs of cooling down.
• SPDR Gold Trust — the world’s largest gold ETF — returned to net buying, signaling institutional capital flowing back into gold.
• This comes as markets continue watching closely for the Fed’s next interest rate decisions.

Source: vneconomy.vn

What Ho Alva sees

I used to think gold was ‘boring’, for people who didn’t understand the market. In 2021, when my stock and crypto portfolio was soaring, I laughed at gold — growing slow as a turtle. But when everything collapsed, I finally understood gold wasn’t created to make you rich quickly. It was created to keep you standing when everything else breaks.

A question I keep asking myself: why does large institutional money like SPDR always return to gold right when inflation cools, not when inflation peaks? Maybe because they’re not buying gold to hedge immediate inflation — they’re buying it in case central banks are forced to reverse policy, and that always brings unpredictable volatility.

For women building financial independence, I think gold isn’t a place to get rich — it’s a place to avoid starting from zero again, like I once had to.

🔍 The number worth noticing more

Few people pay attention to the detail that SPDR Gold Trust returned to net buying. This is the world’s largest gold ETF, and their net buying moves often reflect long-term institutional conviction, not short-term retail emotion. From what I’ve observed, when large institutions accumulate gold, it’s usually a signal they’re preparing for a prolonged period of uncertainty — not just a knee-jerk reaction to one CPI report.

📊 Impact on the Vietnamese market — my personal perspective

This reflects my personal observations only — not investment advice.

Short-term (1–3 months)

I’ve observed that when US inflation cools, expectations of Fed rate cuts often bring capital back to emerging markets, including Vietnam. But I also remember 2022, when the Fed hiked rates 11 times consecutively, foreign investors sold relentlessly, and the VN-Index fell from 1,500 to 911. If the trend reverses this time, I think foreign inflows may cautiously return — but cautiously, not in a rush.

Medium-term (3–12 months)

Looking back at 2011, when Vietnam’s inflation peaked at 18.6% and the State Bank raised interest rates to 14%, I saw gold and USD become the most sought-after havens. If US inflation genuinely cools and stays low, I think pressure on the VND exchange rate could ease, giving domestic monetary policy more room to maneuver.

Long-term (1 year and beyond)

I think the bigger long-term story is global capital searching for stable shelter, and Vietnam — with its market upgrade narrative and steady FDI inflows — remains a destination people keep mentioning. But that’s a structural story, not a reaction to any single inflation report.

Reminder: I am not recommending buying or selling any asset. Everyone has different risk appetites and financial situations — please do your own research or consult a professional before making decisions.

I once…

I once thought safe-haven assets were for the faint-hearted. It wasn’t until I got scammed by Mr. Pip out of hundreds of millions VND on his fake forex platforms that I understood — the faint-hearted aren’t the ones holding gold, they’re the ones who prepared nothing for a bad day. Later, working alongside anh Hiếu at Faviz, I learned that a strong portfolio isn’t the one that grows fastest — it’s the one that survives the most cycles.

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