Hormuz Strait and What It Taught Me About Financial Leverage

I remember March 2022, opening my trading app every morning with my heart racing. Not from good news. From watching oil and gas prices swing wildly with every headline out of Russia and the Middle East. That was when I truly understood how financial leverage works in real life — markets don’t live in a box, they breathe with the whole world. Reading about Iran laying out 6 conditions to reopen the Hormuz Strait, that same familiar feeling came rushing back. A small strait on the map, yet it can shake global oil prices — and drag my portfolio, and yours, along with it.

📌 What’s happening

Iran has set 6 conditions to reopen the Hormuz Strait, a narrow shipping channel through which roughly one-fifth of global daily oil consumption passes. This gives Iran significant strategic leverage — the ability to influence global energy prices by controlling a single physical chokepoint.

• Iran has set 6 conditions to agree to reopening the Hormuz Strait — one of the world’s most strategic shipping routes.
• Roughly one-fifth of global daily oil consumption passes through this strait, according to international energy data.
• Iran taking the initiative to set conditions shows confidence in its strategic leverage, putting Trump and the US in a difficult position.
• Prolonged tension could send oil prices and global shipping costs spiking if Hormuz is truly disrupted.

Source: vnexpress.net

What Ho Alva sees

My first observation: oil prices aren’t a Middle East story, they’re a story about my wallet and yours, and about how financial leverage amplifies both gains and losses when global shocks hit. I lived through 2022 when the Fed raised rates 11 times, the dollar strengthened, and foreign capital fled emerging markets.

VN-Index fell from 1,500 to 911.9 points — the worst performing market in the world at that time. I lost most of my portfolio in that period. The lesson I took away: events that seem far away — US monetary policy, Middle East conflict — decide whether my account rises or falls faster than any technical analysis ever could.

A question I keep asking myself: if oil prices spike because Hormuz gets choked off, who benefits, who suffers? Many people assume rising oil prices are automatically bad for stocks. But I’ve observed historically that certain sectors move the opposite way — oil and gas, domestic shipping.

So the question I ask myself is: am I actually looking at risk, or am I missing an opportunity purely out of a fear reflex? For women building financial independence like me, I think this is the moment to sharpen a skill more important than picking stocks: reading world news without panicking.

I genuinely panicked back in 2022, sold everything out of fear, and regretted it afterward. Now I try to see geopolitical news as part of the risk equation, not a bomb I need to run from immediately.

🔍 The number that matters more

The figure that matters most is that one-fifth of global oil passes through Hormuz daily — this reveals the physical fragility of the energy supply chain, not just a diplomatic dispute. For investors, this number matters more than the 6 conditions Iran listed, because it signals a real supply risk, not just negotiation theater.

For ordinary investors like you and me, this is a signal to watch oil prices and exchange rates, not to guess who wins or loses in political negotiations.

📊 Impact on the Vietnamese market — my personal view

This reflects my personal observations only — not investment advice. In the short term, oil-sensitive and shipping stocks tend to move first; in the medium term, capital flows may shift toward Vietnam as they did in 2018.

Short-term (1–3 months)

I’ve observed that when geopolitical tension escalates, foreign investors tend to turn defensive first, selling off in emerging markets. I saw this most clearly in 2022 when the Fed hiked rates repeatedly — VN-Index dropped from 1,500 to 911.9 points within months.

If Hormuz tensions truly escalate, I think stocks sensitive to oil prices, shipping, and exchange rates would be the first to swing sharply.

Medium-term (3–12 months)

Looking back at the 2018 cycle when the US-China trade war erupted, I noticed something interesting: the same shock, yet Vietnam benefited in the medium term from shifting manufacturing orders. I wonder if Hormuz tensions could create a similar effect — capital seeking safer havens, or high energy costs forcing global companies to rethink supply chains. This is just a personal observation, not a firm forecast.

Long-term (1 year and beyond)

I think about Vietnam’s market upgrade story in this context. If global energy instability persists, Vietnam’s neutral position and competitive labor costs could continue attracting shifting FDI flows — similar to the lesson I took from 2018. But that’s a multi-year process, not a one-quarter story.

To repeat: I am not recommending buying or selling any asset. Everyone has different risk appetites and financial circumstances — please do your own research or consult a professional before making decisions.

I once…

I once thought investing just meant reading a company’s financial reports, without understanding financial leverage at all. In 2021 I was confident because my portfolio looked great, and I thought I was good at this.

Then Q2 2022 hit, and the market collapsed because of things I’d never paid attention to — Fed rates, war, energy prices. I lost everything, and got scammed further by Mr. Pip on his fake forex platforms, losing hundreds of millions more by believing unrealistic interest rate promises.

Since then I’ve learned to see personal finance more broadly — not just numbers on a price board, but the whole world in motion. Understanding financial leverage now means watching oil, rates, and geopolitics together, not chasing charts alone.

Are you tracking news that feels as distant as Hormuz, or just checking the price board every morning? Book a free consultation