Oil Above $100/Barrel: A Lesson I Learned the Hard Way in 2022

I remember late 2022, every time I opened my trading app my heart would race. Not from profit — from fear. Reading today that oil has crossed $100 per barrel after Houthi forces attacked vessels in the Red Sea, that same feeling came back. I don’t hold any oil-related position right now. But I know one thing for certain: when energy markets swing hard, no market stays untouched — not even Vietnam’s VN-Index.

📌 What is happening

• Global oil prices surged past $100 per barrel following a series of attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on vessels in the Red Sea.
• The Red Sea is a critical shipping corridor, carrying most oil and cargo traffic between Asia and Europe.
• Stock markets in several regions reacted negatively immediately after the news, particularly sectors sensitive to energy costs.
• Global investors are increasingly worried about escalating geopolitical risk reigniting cost-push inflation.

Source: tuoitre.vn

What Ho Alva Sees

In 2022 I learned a painful lesson: financial markets never stand apart from the real world. When the Fed raised rates 11 times, I thought it was just America’s problem. But foreign capital fled, and VN-Index fell from 1,500 down to 911.9 points — the worst-performing market in the world at that time. Oil prices today feel similar. A conflict in the Red Sea, seemingly far away, still reaches directly into ordinary wallets through fuel prices, shipping costs, and goods prices.

The question I ask myself isn’t whether oil will rise or fall. It’s whether I’m building my portfolio on the assumption the world will always stay stable. Back in 2021 I believed exactly that. And I paid for it.

I also think of the women learning to invest around me. Many I’ve met through my work with anh Hiếu at Faviz ask the same question: oil prices are rising, what should I do? I can’t answer that for them. But I tell them honestly: if one headline makes you want to panic-sell everything, your portfolio might already carry more risk than you realize.

🔍 A Number Worth More Attention

I don’t fixate on the $100 per barrel figure — everyone already sees that. What catches my attention is how much of global cargo transport runs through the Red Sea corridor. When that route is threatened, shipping costs rise not just from oil prices, but from vessels rerouting, maritime insurance climbing, and delivery times stretching out. For a small investor like I once was, this is the quiet force that erodes corporate profit margins — less dramatic than oil prices, but far more persistent.

📊 Impact on Vietnam’s Market — My Personal View

This reflects my personal observations only — not investment advice.

Short term (1–3 months)

I’ve observed that whenever oil prices and geopolitical instability rise together, local investor sentiment often reacts before macro data even catches up. Similar to 2022, when the Fed raised rates, foreign investors sold continuously before Vietnam’s market had fully absorbed the real impact. I think shipping, aviation, and import-dependent sectors could feel psychological pressure first.

Medium term (3–12 months)

Looking back at the 2011 cycle, when Vietnam’s CPI hit 18.6% and interest rates were pushed to 14%, I saw how macro policy response often matters more than the initial shock itself. If oil prices stay elevated for a prolonged period, I think domestic inflation pressure is something worth watching, along with the monetary policy response that follows.

Long term (1 year or more)

From personal observation, energy and geopolitical shocks often trigger long-term capital shifts — much like the 2018 US-China trade war redirected manufacturing orders toward Vietnam. I find myself wondering whether disruption in global shipping routes this time could create supply chain restructuring opportunities favorable to Vietnam long term — this is simply a question I’m asking myself, not a prediction.

To repeat: I am not recommending buying or selling any asset. Everyone has different risk tolerance and financial circumstances — please research independently or consult a professional before making decisions.

What I’ve Lived Through

I watched my own portfolio evaporate in Q2 2022 because I believed I understood the market better than I actually did. I got scammed by Mr. Pip out of hundreds of millions VND on fake forex platforms, because I thought I could make fast money without understanding the macro risks behind every price swing. The most expensive lesson I carry: world news is never distant — it always finds its way back to your own wallet.

If oil prices keep climbing, do you think your portfolio is prepared for that scenario? Book a free consultation