Brokerage Stocks Surge: Real Rally or Just a Bounce? A Mistake I Once Paid For

Back in 2021 I once watched a group of stocks turn green for a few straight sessions and jumped to a conclusion: the market has turned, get in now before you miss it. By Q2 2022 I lost everything. Reading today’s news about brokerage stocks surging together, I see myself four years ago again — that rush of excitement when prices climb, and the trap of mistaking a bounce for a new trend.

📌 What is happening

• Brokerage stocks have surged together over recent sessions, catching investors’ attention.
• FIDT’s Deputy Director says this rally may mainly reflect a technical bounce.
• Many stocks in this group had previously dropped 20-40% from their peaks.
• The bigger question now: is this a short-term recovery, or is the VN-Index really entering a new uptrend?

Source: cafef.vn

What Ho Alva sees

My first angle: I always ask myself, is the price rising because something fundamental improved, or because the crowd just needs a story to cling to? In 2021 I believed my finance degree was enough to read the market. I was wrong. My portfolio grew not because I was skilled, but because the whole market was riding the post-COVID recovery wave. I confused luck with competence, and the price I paid was losing everything when the VN-Index fell to 911.9 points at the end of 2022.

My second angle, a question I always ask against the grain: if a stock drops 40% then rises 20%, has it recovered, or is it still down 28% from its peak? Percentage gains always feel more exciting than what they actually represent. This is where many people, myself included years ago, deceive themselves with basic math.

My third angle, I think about women building financial independence on their own — with no one there to tell them to slow down. I had no one to remind me, and I paid tuition in real money, including trusting Mr. Pip on his fake forex platforms. True financial independence doesn’t come from catching one rally right. It comes from understanding exactly where you stand in the cycle.

🔍 The number that matters more

The 20-40% drop from previous peaks matters more to me than the few sessions of gains everyone is talking about. A 10-15% bounce after a 40% drop is simply the math of volatility, not proof of a new trend. Retail investors easily let the number in front of them hide the bigger picture behind it.

📊 Impact on Vietnam’s market — my personal view

This reflects my personal observations only — not investment advice.

Short-term (1–3 months)

I have observed that brokerage stocks tend to react fastest to overall market liquidity — surging when money flows back in, but falling just as quickly when sentiment turns. In 2022, as the Fed kept hiking rates, foreign investors sold continuously and the VN-Index fell from 1,500 to 911. I think this short-term period needs to be watched through real liquidity, not just a few green sessions.

Medium-term (3–12 months)

Looking back at the 2018 cycle when the US-China trade war broke out, the broader market corrected, yet certain sectors benefited long-term from shifting capital flows. I think brokerage stocks over the next 3-12 months will depend heavily on whether retail money flows back sustainably, not just a few sessions of excitement.

Long-term (1 year and beyond)

I have observed the story of Vietnam’s market upgrade being discussed for years. If that becomes reality, brokerage companies — which benefit directly from liquidity and foreign capital flows — could have a genuine growth story quite different from a technical bounce. But that is a story measured in years, not weeks.

To repeat: I am not recommending buying or selling any asset. Everyone has different risk appetite and financial circumstances — please research independently or consult an expert before making decisions.

I have been there…

I once watched a few green sessions and believed I could read the market. I poured money in exactly when the market needed a story to believe, and I was the first to believe it. After the 2022 crash and the lesson from Mr. Pip, I learned that telling a technical bounce apart from a real new trend isn’t talent — it’s the discipline to wait for more data.

Do you think this time is a bounce, or a real new wave? Book a free consultation