Vegetables Up 23.6%, Pepper Hits USD 1.17 Billion: Who’s Actually Winning?

News Overview

Vietnam pepper export turnover reached USD 1.17 billion as of August 28, while vegetable exports grew 23.6% year-over-year, according to agricultural export data. The Vietnam pepper export surge is driven mainly by price recovery, not higher output — a distinction that matters a lot for SMEs deciding whether to jump in now. This isn’t the first time these two categories posted double-digit growth, but the current pace is fast enough that several SMEs have asked me directly: should we expand production today?

Great Numbers, But Great For Whom?

The Vietnam pepper export figure of USD 1.17 billion mainly reflects higher prices, not higher volume — actual output is declining because planted area shrank three years ago. I’ve worked directly with pepper suppliers in Dak Lak and Binh Phuoc since 2021. During 2020-2022, pepper prices dropped as low as VND 35,000/kg, causing farmers to cut down their crops en masse. Prices have now recovered strongly, but the underlying supply base is smaller than before, which is why volume and value are moving in opposite directions.

The vegetable story follows a similar but more complex pattern. The 23.6% growth mainly comes from durian, dragon fruit, and bananas shipped to China through official channels — categories that invested in proper growing-area codes back in 2019-2020. A growing-area code is an official registration number certifying a specific farm plot meets the importing country’s traceability and phytosanitary standards. SMEs newly entering the space, without growing-area codes or long-term buyer contracts, are largely sitting outside this growth wave.

Ho Alva’s Take

Buyers care about certification and delivery reliability far more than headline growth percentages — that’s the clearest lesson from real negotiations, not market reports. I once sat at a negotiating table with four Middle Eastern buyers for a 40-ton pepper shipment in 2023. The buyers didn’t care about market growth percentages; they asked exactly three questions: organic certification status, where pesticide residue testing was conducted, and committed delivery timeline. SMEs who answered all three clearly closed deals within two weeks, while those who hesitated saw buyers pivot to Indonesia immediately.

Opportunity for SMEs

SMEs with stable raw material zones should lock in 6-12 month contracts now, while pepper and vegetable prices remain favorable, instead of selling spot lot by lot. Good pricing is a window of time, not a permanent trend. I always advise clients to reserve at least 20% of output for fixed contracts to hedge against price reversals.

For vegetables, small-scale SMEs should partner with cooperatives or farmer groups to meet growing-area code requirements. A single household rarely has enough land area alone, but 5-10 households linking together can typically qualify within 3-4 months.

Risk Considerations

The biggest risk for Vietnam pepper export growth isn’t falling prices — it’s SMEs scaling output too fast based on current prices, then getting caught off guard when the market corrects. I watched this play out in 2022: many households rushed to replant pepper when prices rose, and three years later supply outpaced demand, sending prices back down.

• Use favorable pricing now to negotiate long-term contracts (6-12 months)
• Invest in traceability certification this quarter while cash flow is strong
• Maintain a balanced ratio between spot sales and fixed contracts
• Scale volume based on signed contracts, not market sentiment

The lesson from 2022 still applies today: don’t scale volume based on market sentiment, scale based on signed contracts. This is a time to build foundation, not chase volume — a mindset that will matter most for Vietnam pepper export and vegetable SMEs over the next 12 months.

Is your business still selling at daily market prices, or have you already locked in contracts that protect you from volatility?