VN-Index Drops 50 Points, Then Rebounds: I’ve Lived This Before

Morning down almost 50 points, afternoon back up green. I read this news and my hands went a little cold — not because I have money in it right now, but because I remember this exact feeling. Q2 2022, my own portfolio danced the same way. Sleepless mornings, flickers of hope by afternoon. Then VN-Index eventually crashed to 911.9 points on November 15, 2022 — down more than 40% from its peak. I lost everything in exactly this kind of volatility.

📌 What’s happening

• VN-Index dropped almost 50 points in the morning session, then rebounded in the afternoon — intraday swings within a single trading day.
• Experts point to three main drivers: liquidity, capital flow, and the movement of large-cap (‘pillar’) stocks.
• This pattern has repeated across several consecutive sessions, not just once.
• Retail investors often panic-sell at the morning low then regret it when prices recover by afternoon.

Source: tuoitre.vn

What Ho Alva sees

Back in 2021, I thought I could read the market just from a few technical indicators learned in university. When the market rose, I thought it was skill. When VN-Index started swinging like a rollercoaster the way it is now, I understood something different — sharp intraday volatility isn’t the moment to prove yourself, it’s the moment the market tests who has discipline and who was just lucky.

A question I keep asking myself: if a stock falls 5 percent in the morning then recovers by afternoon, what actually changed about that company’s real value in a few hours? Or is it just crowd psychology bouncing off itself?

I tell the women in my investing circle often: short-term volatility is an emotional test, not a knowledge test. Women building financial independence don’t need to guess every session correctly — they need to understand what they hold and why they hold it.

🔍 A number worth more attention

The number I notice that few mention is liquidity. In a low-liquidity market, just a few large sell orders from pillar stocks can drag the index down almost 50 points. When capital flows back in quickly, the afternoon session snaps back up. Thin liquidity is exactly why volatility turns extreme — a lesson I learned painfully in 2022.

📊 Impact on Vietnam’s market — my personal view

This reflects my personal observations only — not investment advice.

Short-term (1–3 months)

I’ve observed that when liquidity is thin, swings in pillar stocks pull the whole index along. I lived through 2022 when the Fed raised rates repeatedly, foreign investors sold net continuously, and VN-Index fell from over 1,500 to 911.9 — a prolonged shake-up, not just one session. This current intraday ‘rollercoaster,’ in my view, reflects investor sentiment that’s still unstable, reacting excessively to short-term news.

Medium-term (3–12 months)

Looking back at the 2018 cycle when the US-China trade war broke out, global markets corrected sharply but manufacturing capital shifted toward Vietnam over the longer run. I think the current short-term volatility doesn’t necessarily reflect the real health of the economy. Capital flows may remain sensitive to global interest rate policy and exchange rates — something I’ve watched closely since my 2022 lesson.

Long-term (1 year and beyond)

I personally believe the market upgrade story and FDI capital flows remain a foundational factor for Vietnam, regardless of a few volatile sessions. But that’s a personal belief, not a guaranteed forecast. History shows markets always have short bursts of panic woven into longer trends — 2008, 2011, 2015 all proved that.

To repeat: I’m not recommending buying or selling any asset. Everyone has a different risk appetite and financial situation — please do your own research or consult a professional before deciding.

What I’ve lived through

I once sat watching the board turn deep red in the morning, heart racing, then panic-sold — only to watch prices recover by afternoon. That was exactly 2022, the period I lost nearly everything I’d built from 2019-2021. Afterward I was scammed further by Mr. Pip on his fake forex platforms — losing hundreds of millions more. True rock bottom. But that’s also when I started studying seriously, joined the project with anh Chí Hiếu Nguyễn and Faviz Investment, and relearned everything about growth investing and discipline.

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