State Treasury flush with cash, banks starved for liquidity

March 2022, I sat at a cafe on Pasteur Street, staring at my portfolio bleeding red. Back then I couldn’t understand why the market was falling — companies were still growing well. It took years of working with anh Hieu and the Faviz team to finally get it: liquidity is king. Without money flowing through the system, even good stocks fall. Now, reading that the State Treasury is sitting on 500 trillion VND while banks are desperate for liquidity, I’m reminded of that bitter lesson.

📌 What’s happening

• Credit growth outpacing deposits: Banks are lending more than they’re raising, creating a gap of over 2.5 trillion VND
• Treasury hoarding cash: Budget surplus of nearly 500,000 billion VND hasn’t been deployed back into the economy
• Slow public investment disbursement: Large amounts of money sitting idle instead of circulating
• Interest rate pressure: Liquidity shortage pushing interbank rates higher, forcing banks to borrow at steeper costs

Source: cafef.vn

What Ho Alva sees

This is a story about cash flow — something I learned by losing everything in 2022. Back then I thought the VN-Index fell because of “bad market sentiment.” Wrong. It fell because money had nowhere to go. The Fed raised rates, capital fled emerging markets, and the VN-Index lost 40% of its value.

Now we have the opposite situation but equally dangerous: money exists — it’s just in the wrong place. The Treasury is sitting on 500 trillion VND while businesses and people need capital to grow. This is what we call a “liquidity bottleneck” — money not flowing where it’s needed most.

The question I ask myself: if you’re a retail investor, what should you do in this environment? Buy bank stocks because higher rates mean higher profits? Or stay away because liquidity pressure could trigger systemic risk?

And for women building financial independence: this is when you need to understand money flows in the economy, not just in your own portfolio. Because liquidity shocks don’t give warnings — they come fast, like in 2022.

🔍 The number that matters more

I’m not looking at the 500,000 billion VND surplus. I’m looking at the 2.5 trillion VND gap between credit and deposits.

This number shows banks are “borrowing short, lending long” — a high-risk model. If depositors suddenly withdraw en masse (bank run), or if the central bank tightens policy, the system could face serious pressure.

The world witnessed this in 2008. Vietnam saw similar signs in 2022 — credit growth too hot, liquidity stretched thin, VN-Index collapsed.

2.5 trillion VND — it’s not just a number. It’s a warning.

I once thought…

…that the stock market only depended on companies’ business results. In 2021, my portfolio looked beautiful. I thought I was picking the right stocks.

By Q2 2022, everything collapsed. Good stocks, bad stocks — they all fell the same. That’s when I understood: system liquidity matters more than stock quality.

The State Bank tightened liquidity to control inflation. Banks ran short on cash. Interest rates rose. Companies found it harder to borrow, growth slowed. The stock market collapsed.

I lost hundreds of millions from that lesson. Now, whenever I read news about liquidity, I pay attention. Because it directly impacts your portfolio — no matter how good your stock picks are.

Are you tracking system liquidity? Or are you only looking at company financials?

If you’re not sure what to do in this environment, schedule a free consultation with the team. Sometimes an outside perspective helps you see more clearly.