Strait of Hormuz and the 2022 lesson I never forgot

In November 2022, I sat watching the trading screen with shaking hands. VN-Index dropped to 911.9 points. Foreign investors sold off relentlessly. Oil, exchange rates, interest rates — everything moved together. That was when I truly understood Vietnam’s stock market is never isolated from the world. Something happening thousands of kilometers away could wipe out my portfolio in weeks. Reading about the Strait of Hormuz opening and closing repeatedly these past few weeks, I felt that same familiar feeling — the world holding its breath, waiting to see where things go.

📌 What is happening

• The Strait of Hormuz — which carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil consumption — has been opening and closing repeatedly over recent weeks.
• This is the critical maritime route connecting Gulf oil exporters to global markets.
• Analysts are starting to worry about the long-term integrity of global energy supply chains.
• This volatility comes while the world remains sensitive to any energy shock, following the 2022 inflation and rate-hike cycle.

Source: tuoitre.vn

What Ho Alva sees

I used to think oil prices were only relevant to energy companies, nothing to do with the tech or retail stocks I held. In 2022, I learned otherwise. Rising oil prices pushed inflation higher, inflation forced central banks to raise rates, and higher rates pulled foreign capital out of emerging markets like Vietnam. A domino chain I once thought had nothing to do with me.

The question I ask myself now: if a small strait nearly 6,000km from Vietnam can shake my stock account, am I truly evaluating how connected global financial markets really are? Or am I still investing as if each market were its own isolated island?

I think often about women building financial independence for themselves. We tend to focus on learning to read financial statements, learning technical analysis. But few of us learn to read geopolitical maps. I learned this part the hardest way possible — by losing real money.

🔍 The number that matters more

The number I focus on isn’t how much oil prices jumped. I focus on the fact that this strait has been opening and closing repeatedly for weeks — meaning prolonged uncertainty, not a single shock that passes. For an individual investor like me, a short shock is bearable. But prolonged uncertainty is what erodes psychology and drives people into bad decisions — exactly how I panic-sold back in 2022.

📊 Impact on Vietnam’s market — my personal view

This reflects my personal observations only — not investment advice.

Short-term (1–3 months)

I observed that when the Fed raised rates in 2022, foreign investors sold continuously — VN-Index fell from 1,500 to 911. If oil prices swing sharply due to Hormuz, I think energy, shipping, and fertilizer stocks in Vietnam could react fastest in the short term. Sectors dependent on imported raw materials or shipping costs might face the opposite pressure.

Medium-term (3–12 months)

Looking back at the 2018 cycle when the US-China trade war erupted, I saw the same event impact industries differently — Vietnam’s manufacturing sector actually benefited as orders shifted. With this Hormuz story, I believe that if global energy costs stay elevated for months, inflationary pressure could return, leading to more cautious monetary policy across many countries, including Vietnam.

Long-term (1 year or more)

From what I’ve observed, repeated energy shocks often push nations to diversify supply sources and shipping routes. Vietnam, given its geographic position and role in global supply chains, could benefit indirectly if FDI flows continue seeking more stable havens. This is a personal observation that needs time to be verified.

Reminder: I am not recommending buying or selling any asset. Everyone has different risk appetite and financial circumstances — please do your own research or consult a professional before making decisions.

I have been through this…

I once thought I understood the market simply because my portfolio grew beautifully in 2021. Then Q2/2022 hit, VN-Index dropped 40%, and I lost everything. I was also scammed out of hundreds of millions VND by Mr. Pip on his fake forex platforms. That’s when I understood financial markets aren’t just numbers on a screen — they’re the result of a whole network of global events I had been too lazy to study.

If a small strait can make the whole world hold its breath, do you truly understand the invisible threads connecting your portfolio to the outside world? Book a free consultation