US Refunds $100B in Tariffs — Why I Thought of VN-Index at 911 Points

I still remember staring at a red trading screen back in 2022. Back then I thought big-power policy decisions were something distant, nothing to do with an ordinary person’s wallet in Saigon. So when I read that the US has refunded $100 billion in tariffs, I did not read it as dry news — I read it as a signal, written for Vietnamese exporters and investors who want to understand how US trade policy quietly shapes the VN-Index.

Then the Fed hiked rates 11 times, the dollar strengthened, foreign capital fled — and my VN-Index portfolio dropped 40% in a matter of months. I have learned that American trade policy always finds its way back to the Vietnamese market, sooner or later.

📌 What is happening

The US government refunded about $100 billion out of $130 billion in tariffs collected beyond legal authority or through flawed process. This is one of the largest tariff refund actions in recent US trade history, forcing repayment directly to importing businesses.

• The US government has processed refunds of about $100 billion out of $130 billion in collected tariffs.
• This portion was deemed collected beyond legal authority or through flawed process, forcing repayment to importing businesses.
• Alongside this, details about the cost of building Trump-class warships were revealed at a striking price.
• Both stories reflect an America adjusting trade and defense policy simultaneously.

Source: tuoitre.vn

What I see

A tariff refund does not automatically mean fresh capital enters stock markets — it can just as easily sit quietly on a company balance sheet. This distinction matters for anyone trying to predict market reaction to trade policy news.

First angle — I remember 2018 when the US-China trade war first broke out. Global markets corrected, everyone panicked. But Vietnam’s manufacturing sector benefited long term as orders shifted away from China.

Second angle — I ask myself: if refunded tariff money returns to businesses, does it flow into asset markets, or just sit quietly on a balance sheet? I believed money existing automatically means it flows into stocks back in 2021, and I paid dearly for that belief.

Third angle — I think about women building financial independence in Vietnam. US policy shifts, expensive warships, tariff refunds all sound far away, but if you hold USD or export-linked stocks, these headlines are quietly shaping your portfolio.

🔍 The number that matters more

The unresolved $30 billion in tariffs still under dispute matters more to markets than the $100 billion already refunded, because uncertainty — not a bad number itself — is what triggers panic selling. I learned this painfully in 2022.

I notice the remaining $30 billion not yet refunded, not the $100 billion already processed. For individual investors, the unresolved portion is usually what creates volatility — because it still holds disputes, litigation, uncertainty. Markets fear the unknown more than the known.

📊 Impact on the Vietnamese market — my personal view

This reflects my personal observations only — not investment advice.

Short term (1–3 months)

Foreign investors on the Vietnamese exchange tend to react first and fast to US trade policy shifts, sometimes overreacting before fundamentals catch up. In 2022 this pattern dragged VN-Index from 1,500 down to 911.9 points as the Fed hiked rates.

This event is much smaller in scale, but I think short-term volatility in export and logistics stocks is plausible.

Medium term (3–12 months)

Looking back at the 2018 cycle when the US-China trade war erupted, Vietnam benefited long term as FDI capital shifted manufacturing here. If the US continues adjusting tariff policy toward more transparency, this could be an opportunity for Vietnamese exporters to strengthen their position in the supply chain — but that is a personal observation, not a guaranteed forecast.

Long term (1 year and beyond)

Each time global trade policy stabilizes, foreign institutional capital tends to look more closely at frontier markets like Vietnam. This is my long-term observation, based on how Vietnam benefited from manufacturing relocation throughout 2018-2023.

Reminder: I am not recommending buying or selling any asset. Everyone has different risk appetite and financial circumstances — please do your own research or consult a professional before making decisions.

I have been there…

I used to think US policy was just news to skim past, nothing to do with my small trading account. Then the Fed hiked rates 11 times in 2022, and I understood — Vietnam is an open market, and every strong wind from outside blows in here, sometimes even harder.

I lost nearly everything that year, then got scammed further by Mr. Pip on his fake forex platforms while desperately trying to recover. My most expensive lesson: reading world news, like when the US refunds $100B in tariffs, is not for predicting — it is for understanding where you stand in the bigger picture.

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