Gas Stations Profit More: A Lesson on Market Trust

Back in 2022, I once stood at a gas pump watching the price ticker climb, my heart pounding — not because of the fuel price, but because I had just wiped out my entire stock portfolio and every number felt like a threat. Reading this news about US gas stations profiting more while oil prices drop made me laugh quietly to myself. Turns out, everywhere in the world, consumers are usually the last to know.

📌 What is happening

• President Trump has criticized US gas stations for keeping retail prices high even as crude oil prices fall.
• Evidence shows the gas retail business is becoming more profitable, not less.
• When input oil prices drop, retail prices tend to fall more slowly — creating a gap that benefits gas stations.
• This is a well-known phenomenon in economics, sometimes called (‘rocket and feather’) — prices rise fast, fall slow.

Source: www.nytimes.com

What Ho Alva Sees

I remember 2022, when the Fed raised rates eleven times and global oil prices swung wildly. Back then I was busy nursing wounds from watching the VN-Index crash to 911.9 points, barely paying attention to global oil prices. But looking back now, I understand something: market pricing is never instantly transparent. There is always a lag, and that lag is exactly where profit quietly flows into someone’s pocket.

The question I keep asking myself: if a business can hold prices high longer than necessary without anyone noticing, am I — as a small retail investor — missing similar (‘lags’) in the Vietnamese market? Stock prices, real estate prices, gold prices — have I ever actually bought after the market fully (‘adjusted’) to true value, or was I just buying on crowd emotion?

For women building financial independence, I see this as a lesson in staying clear-headed. Don’t let emotion — whether anger over gas prices or excitement over a rising market — drive financial decisions. I paid dearly for this lesson in 2021, when I thought I understood the market simply because my portfolio was climbing.

🔍 A Number Worth Noticing More

What catches my attention isn’t how much oil prices dropped, but the time gap between when input costs fall and when retail prices follow. For investors, this gap is a sign of pricing power — a business with strong pricing power is often worth studying long-term, because it controls its margins even when input costs swing.

📊 Impact on Vietnam’s Market — My Personal View

This reflects my personal observations only — not investment advice.

Short-term (1–3 months)

I have observed that domestic fuel prices in Vietnam tend to react slowly to global oil price swings, due to the periodic price administration mechanism. If global oil prices keep falling, I think transportation and logistics companies could see short-term margin benefits — similar to what I once saw when falling input costs improved profitability for certain sectors after past oil price shocks.

Medium-term (3–12 months)

Looking back at the 2018 cycle when the US-China trade war broke out, I saw how the same global event created opposite effects across different sectors. With this gas station story, I think domestic fuel retailers could experience something similar — improved margins when input costs fall faster than retail prices adjust. This is an observation, not a forecast for any specific stock.

Long-term (1 year and beyond)

I think about the bigger picture: as Vietnam’s market moves toward an upgrade in classification, pricing transparency and corporate margins will be scrutinized more closely by foreign investors. The lesson from the US gas retail industry — where profits quietly grew while few noticed — reminds me that information transparency is always something I weigh when looking at a business for the long run.

Reminder: I am not recommending buying or selling any asset. Everyone has different risk appetites and financial circumstances — please do your own research or consult an expert before making decisions.

I Once…

I once believed market prices always instantly reflected true value. In 2022, after being scammed by Mr. Pip on fake forex platforms and losing hundreds of millions of VND, I finally understood — the market isn’t fair the way I imagined. There are lags, gaps that only those who dig deeper can see. Since then, I’ve learned to slow down, read more carefully, and stop letting emotion drive my money.

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